81% of flights from Seattle to Sacramento arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is about the typical U.S. route. The 5 a.m. departures ran on time 95% of the time; the 11 a.m. ones 70%. Most reliable airline: Delta Air Lines (89%). 5% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for SEA → SMF: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 68% of the time. About 1 in 24 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 199 three hours or more; 0.5% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early81%
- 15–30 min late8.2%
- 30–60 min late5.5%
- 1–2 hours late2.8%
- 2–3 hours late0.8%
- 3+ hours late0.5%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled0.5%
Share of all 4,573 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 1,787 | 80% | 0.8% | −3 min | 3.8% | +47 min | Alaska Airlines 79%, SkyWest 11%, Horizon Air 10% |
| Delta Air Lines | 1,647 | 89% | 0.2% | −9 min | 3.1% | +61 min | SkyWest |
| Southwest Airlines | 1,139 | 73% | 0.4% | −2 min | 6.1% | +48 min | Southwest Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at SEA). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Alaska Airlines | Delta Air Lines | Southwest Airlines |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5 a.m. | — | — | 95% |
| 6 a.m. | — | — | 93% |
| 7 a.m. | 89% | — | — |
| 8 a.m. | — | 92% | — |
| 9 a.m. | 85% | — | — |
| 10 a.m. | — | 90% | — |
| 11 a.m. | 80% | — | 62% |
| noon | 87% | — | — |
| 2 p.m. | — | 88% | — |
| 4 p.m. | 81% | 94% | — |
| 5 p.m. | — | 82% | — |
| 6 p.m. | — | — | 68% |
| 7 p.m. | 73% | 92% | 58% |
| 8 p.m. | 74% | 82% | — |
| 9 p.m. | 83% | — | — |
Last flight of the day
On SEA → SMF, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time, against 0.5% for its earlier flights, so here the last flight is actually the safer one. It arrived 3+ hours late 0.7% of the time (earlier flights: 0.4%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alaska Airlines | 8:55 p.m. | 0.8% | 0.0% | 0.8% | first flight 7:28 a.m. |
| Delta Air Lines | 8:25 p.m. | 0.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% | first flight 8:43 a.m. |
| Southwest Airlines | 7:30 p.m. | 0.0% | 1.4% | 0.5% | first flight 5:30 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: April (85%). Worst: July (74%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 708 | 83% | 0.3% |
| Tuesday | 627 | 87% | 0.2% |
| Wednesday | 624 | 84% | 0.0% |
| Thursday | 687 | 78% | 0.6% |
| Friday | 695 | 78% | 1.3% |
| Saturday | 548 | 83% | 0.5% |
| Sunday | 684 | 79% | 0.4% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 10 · weather 6 · air traffic/airport 6
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 3881 | 8:25 a.m. | 359 | 91% | 0.0% | −11 min | SkyWest |
| DL 4125 | 12:20 p.m. | 349 | 91% | 0.0% | −10 min | SkyWest |
| AS 681 | 2:16 p.m. | 278 | 81% | 0.7% | −3 min | Alaska Airlines |
| DL 4153 | 2:45 p.m. | 141 | 87% | 0.0% | −5 min | SkyWest |
| DL 4043 | 5:00 p.m. | 316 | 88% | 0.3% | −7 min | SkyWest |
| DL 4131 | 7:45 p.m. | 328 | 88% | 0.3% | −13 min | SkyWest |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 13, 2026 | 13 | 0% | 6 |
| Dec 24, 2025 | 9 | 11% | 0 |
| Jul 16, 2026 | 15 | 13% | 1 |
| Dec 21, 2025 | 12 | 33% | 0 |
| Aug 24, 2026 | 15 | 40% | 0 |
Questions
How often are flights from SEA to SMF on time?
81% of 4,573 scheduled flights from Seattle, WA to Sacramento, CA arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.5% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly SEA to SMF?
Flights scheduled to leave at 5 a.m. were the most reliable (95% on time). The 11 a.m. departures were the least (70%).
Which airline is most on time from SEA to SMF?
Delta Air Lines: 89% of its 1,647 flights on the route arrived on time. Alaska Airlines: 80%. Southwest Airlines: 73%.
What month has the most delays from SEA to SMF?
July (74% on time). The best month is April (85%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from SEA to SMF more likely to be cancelled?
No, the opposite. Each airline's last SEA–SMF flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time over the past year, against 0.5% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- SMF → SEA (return)
- Seattle-Tacoma (SEA) delays by hour
- Flights into Sacramento (SMF)
- Alaska Airlines on-time record
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.