83% of flights from Phoenix to Minneapolis arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is better than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 95% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 72%. Most reliable airline: Delta Air Lines (85%). 7% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for PHX → MSP: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 55% of the time. About 1 in 18 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 74 three hours or more; 0.9% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early83%
- 15–30 min late5.8%
- 30–60 min late4.7%
- 1–2 hours late3.1%
- 2–3 hours late1.2%
- 3+ hours late1.3%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled0.9%
Share of all 2,974 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 2,044 | 85% | 0.7% | −10 min | 4.6% | +84 min | Delta Air Lines |
| American Airlines | 621 | 77% | 1.1% | −7 min | 8.7% | +81 min | American Airlines 100%, Envoy 0% |
| Southwest Airlines | 227 | 75% | 1.3% | −2 min | 5.7% | +45 min | Southwest Airlines |
| Frontier Airlines | 82 | — | — | — | — | — | Frontier Airlines |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at PHX). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Delta Air Lines | American Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 12 a.m. | 85% | — |
| 6 a.m. | 96% | — |
| 7 a.m. | 92% | — |
| 8 a.m. | — | 83% |
| 9 a.m. | 87% | 81% |
| 10 a.m. | 89% | — |
| 11 a.m. | 90% | — |
| 1 p.m. | 75% | — |
| 3 p.m. | 77% | — |
| 5 p.m. | 85% | — |
| 6 p.m. | 82% | 65% |
Last flight of the day
On PHX → MSP, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 1.6% of the time, against 0.6% for its earlier flights (2.6× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 0.8% of the time (earlier flights: 1.5%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 6:50 p.m. | 2.0% | 0.8% | 0.4% | first flight 8:35 a.m. |
| Delta Air Lines | 5:17 p.m. | 1.1% | 0.5% | 0.7% | first flight 6:50 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in MSP tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (89%). Worst: July (75%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 435 | 83% | 0.5% |
| Tuesday | 398 | 84% | 1.5% |
| Wednesday | 405 | 86% | 0.3% |
| Thursday | 427 | 86% | 0.5% |
| Friday | 432 | 82% | 0.7% |
| Saturday | 443 | 80% | 1.1% |
| Sunday | 434 | 78% | 1.6% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 16 · airline 9 · air traffic/airport 1
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 2553 | 7:05 a.m. | 365 | 93% | 0.5% | −12 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 1047 | 10:38 a.m. | 208 | 87% | 1.0% | −8 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2274 | 2:00 p.m. | 333 | 81% | 0.6% | −6 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2284 | 5:31 p.m. | 168 | 82% | 1.8% | −12 min | Delta Air Lines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mar 15, 2026 | 12 | 8% | 5 |
| Dec 28, 2025 | 9 | 22% | 0 |
| Jan 17, 2026 | 7 | 29% | 0 |
| Mar 16, 2026 | 11 | 36% | 1 |
| Sep 26, 2025 | 8 | 38% | 2 |
Questions
How often are flights from PHX to MSP on time?
83% of 2,974 scheduled flights from Phoenix, AZ to Minneapolis, MN arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.9% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly PHX to MSP?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (95% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (72%).
Which airline is most on time from PHX to MSP?
Delta Air Lines: 85% of its 2,044 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 77%. Southwest Airlines: 75%.
What month has the most delays from PHX to MSP?
July (75% on time). The best month is September (89%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from PHX to MSP more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last PHX–MSP flight of the day was cancelled 1.6% of the time over the past year, against 0.6% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MSP → PHX (return)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor (PHX) delays by hour
- Flights into Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- Southwest Airlines on-time record
- Frontier Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.