81% of flights from Phoenix to Carlsbad arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is about the typical U.S. route. The 10 a.m. departures ran on time 87% of the time; the 3 p.m. ones 70%. 7% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for PHX → CLD: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 50% of the time. About 1 in 17 flights landed an hour or more late; 1.2% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early81%
- 15–30 min late5.7%
- 30–60 min late6.2%
- 1–2 hours late4.7%
- 2–3 hours late0.9%
- 3+ hours late0.1%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled1.2%
Share of all 908 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 908 | 81% | 1.2% | −5 min | 5.7% | +53 min | Envoy |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at PHX). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
Last flight of the day
On PHX → CLD, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.3% of the time, against 1.8% for its earlier flights, so here the last flight is actually the safer one. It arrived 3+ hours late 0.3% of the time (earlier flights: 0.0%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 9:15 p.m. | 0.3% | 0.3% | 1.8% | first flight 10:28 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: April (94%). Worst: July (80%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 133 | 81% | 1.5% |
| Tuesday | 129 | 85% | 0.8% |
| Wednesday | 125 | 88% | 0.0% |
| Thursday | 127 | 82% | 1.6% |
| Friday | 133 | 73% | 2.3% |
| Saturday | 126 | 80% | 1.6% |
| Sunday | 135 | 77% | 0.7% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 9 · weather 1 · air traffic/airport 1
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AA 4021 | 5:41 p.m. | 207 | 80% | 0.5% | −8 min | Envoy |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Aug 9, 2026 | 4 | 0% | 0 |
| Aug 31, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 0 |
| Aug 2, 2026 | 4 | 25% | 0 |
| Aug 23, 2026 | 4 | 25% | 0 |
| Jul 25, 2026 | 4 | 25% | 0 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Phoenix or Carlsbad. None has been clearly more reliable than PHX → CLD.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| PHX → CLD (this route) | 908 | 81% | 1.2% |
| PHX → SNA Phoenix Sky Harbor to Orange County John Wayne | 4,643 | 79% | 0.4% |
| PHX → SAN Phoenix Sky Harbor to San Diego | 6,620 | 68% | 1.6% |
Questions
How often are flights from PHX to CLD on time?
81% of 908 scheduled flights from Phoenix, AZ to Carlsbad, CA arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 1.2% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly PHX to CLD?
Flights scheduled to leave at 10 a.m. were the most reliable (87% on time). The 3 p.m. departures were the least (70%).
What month has the most delays from PHX to CLD?
July (80% on time). The best month is April (94%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from PHX to CLD more likely to be cancelled?
No, the opposite. Each airline's last PHX–CLD flight of the day was cancelled 0.3% of the time over the past year, against 1.8% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- CLD → PHX (return)
- Phoenix Sky Harbor (PHX) delays by hour
- Flights into McClellan-Palomar (CLD)
- American Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.