66% of flights from Minneapolis to San Francisco arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 7 a.m. departures ran on time 88% of the time; the 9 a.m. ones 60%. Most reliable airline: United Airlines (70%). 10% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for MSP → SFO: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 58% of the time. About 1 in 11 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 74 three hours or more; 0.7% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early66%
- 15–30 min late13%
- 30–60 min late11%
- 1–2 hours late6.9%
- 2–3 hours late1.0%
- 3+ hours late1.3%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled0.7%
Share of all 1,926 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,449 | 65% | 0.8% | +2 min | 8.5% | +50 min | Delta Air Lines |
| United Airlines | 477 | 70% | 0.4% | −4 min | 11.7% | +72 min | United Airlines 75%, SkyWest 25% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at MSP). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Delta Air Lines | United Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 7 a.m. | — | 88% |
| 8 a.m. | 70% | — |
| 9 a.m. | 60% | — |
| 11 a.m. | 65% | — |
| 3 p.m. | 72% | 63% |
| 5 p.m. | — | 72% |
| 6 p.m. | 64% | — |
| 9 p.m. | 62% | — |
Last flight of the day
On MSP → SFO, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time, against 0.8% for its earlier flights, so here the last flight is actually the safer one. It arrived 3+ hours late 0.8% of the time (earlier flights: 1.0%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 9:40 p.m. | 0.5% | 0.3% | 0.8% | first flight 9:24 a.m. |
| United Airlines | 3:20 p.m. | 0.0% | 2.7% | 0.0% | first flight 7:00 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (91%). Worst: May (61%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 295 | 64% | 0.3% |
| Tuesday | 242 | 74% | 0.0% |
| Wednesday | 270 | 66% | 0.4% |
| Thursday | 295 | 60% | 0.7% |
| Friday | 297 | 64% | 1.0% |
| Saturday | 233 | 76% | 0.4% |
| Sunday | 294 | 63% | 1.7% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 9 · weather 4
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 2078 | 9:24 a.m. | 249 | 55% | 1.6% | +9 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2074 | 11:00 a.m. | 365 | 65% | 1.1% | +3 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 756 | 6:40 p.m. | 342 | 70% | 0.0% | 0 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2809 | 6:50 p.m. | 155 | 65% | 0.0% | +2 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2089 | 9:59 p.m. | 174 | 57% | 0.6% | +7 min | Delta Air Lines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 15, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 0 |
| May 14, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 0 |
| May 28, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 0 |
| Dec 26, 2025 | 5 | 0% | 0 |
| Dec 23, 2025 | 5 | 0% | 0 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Minneapolis or San Francisco. MSP → SJC has been 7 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| MSP → SFO (this route) | 1,926 | 66% | 0.7% |
| MSP → SJC Minneapolis-St. Paul to San Jose | 511 | 73% | 1.0% |
Questions
How often are flights from MSP to SFO on time?
66% of 1,926 scheduled flights from Minneapolis, MN to San Francisco, CA arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 0.7% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly MSP to SFO?
Flights scheduled to leave at 7 a.m. were the most reliable (88% on time). The 9 a.m. departures were the least (60%).
Which airline is most on time from MSP to SFO?
United Airlines: 70% of its 477 flights on the route arrived on time. Delta Air Lines: 65%.
What month has the most delays from MSP to SFO?
May (61% on time). The best month is September (91%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from MSP to SFO more likely to be cancelled?
No, the opposite. Each airline's last MSP–SFO flight of the day was cancelled 0.4% of the time over the past year, against 0.8% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- SFO → MSP (return)
- Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP) delays by hour
- Flights into San Francisco (SFO)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- United Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.