74% of flights from New York to Minneapolis arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 7 a.m. departures ran on time 83% of the time; the 6 p.m. ones 60%. 14% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for JFK → MSP: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 44% of the time. About 1 in 11 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 33 three hours or more; 4.3% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early74%
- 15–30 min late5.5%
- 30–60 min late6.0%
- 1–2 hours late4.7%
- 2–3 hours late1.8%
- 3+ hours late3.0%
- Diverted0.3%
- Cancelled4.3%
Share of all 1,096 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,096 | 74% | 4.3% | −9 min | 9.5% | +93 min | Delta Air Lines 63%, Endeavor Air 37% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at JFK). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
Last flight of the day
On JFK → MSP, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 6.6% of the time, against 3.1% for its earlier flights (2.1× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 4.7% of the time (earlier flights: 2.2%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 6:20 p.m. | 6.6% | 4.7% | 3.1% | first flight 7:15 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in MSP tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: November (89%). Worst: July (69%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 159 | 72% | 6.3% |
| Tuesday | 156 | 74% | 3.2% |
| Wednesday | 156 | 79% | 0.6% |
| Thursday | 155 | 70% | 4.5% |
| Friday | 156 | 80% | 1.9% |
| Saturday | 157 | 77% | 4.5% |
| Sunday | 157 | 68% | 8.9% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: airline 24 · weather 13 · air traffic/airport 10
Month by month
Not enough months with data to draw a trend.
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 2390 | 7:15 a.m. | 243 | 85% | 1.7% | −12 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2414 | 11:35 a.m. | 267 | 84% | 1.5% | −15 min | Delta Air Lines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 26, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 2 |
| Feb 24, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 2 |
| Feb 23, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 3 |
| Dec 27, 2025 | 3 | 0% | 1 |
| Mar 11, 2026 | 3 | 0% | 1 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of New York or Minneapolis. LGA → MSP has been 3 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| JFK → MSP (this route) | 1,096 | 74% | 4.3% |
| LGA → MSP LaGuardia to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 1,971 | 78% | 2.9% |
| EWR → MSP Newark to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 2,268 | 76% | 4.6% |
Questions
How often are flights from JFK to MSP on time?
74% of 1,096 scheduled flights from New York, NY to Minneapolis, MN arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 4.3% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly JFK to MSP?
Flights scheduled to leave at 7 a.m. were the most reliable (83% on time). The 6 p.m. departures were the least (60%).
What month has the most delays from JFK to MSP?
July (69% on time). The best month is November (89%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from JFK to MSP more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last JFK–MSP flight of the day was cancelled 6.6% of the time over the past year, against 3.1% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MSP → JFK (return)
- New York JFK (JFK) delays by hour
- Flights into Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.