73% of flights from Washington to Minneapolis arrived on time over the past 12 months. That is worse than the typical U.S. route. The 6 a.m. departures ran on time 86% of the time; the 8 p.m. ones 47%. Most reliable airline: Delta Air Lines (77%). 13% of flights arrived more than an hour late or not at all.
How late?
The on-time rate treats a flight 20 minutes late the same as one 5 hours late. Here's the split for DCA → MSP: when a flight was late, it was under 45 minutes late 47% of the time. About 1 in 10 flights landed an hour or more late, and 1 in 38 three hours or more; 3.2% were cancelled outright.
- On time or early73%
- 15–30 min late7.2%
- 30–60 min late6.6%
- 1–2 hours late4.9%
- 2–3 hours late2.2%
- 3+ hours late2.6%
- Diverted0.2%
- Cancelled3.2%
Share of all 2,653 scheduled flights, past 12 months, by arrival time against schedule.
By airline
| Airline | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | 1h+ late | Avg when late | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Delta Air Lines | 1,722 | 77% | 1.9% | −7 min | 8.4% | +94 min | Delta Air Lines 99%, Endeavor Air 1%, SkyWest 0% |
| American Airlines | 931 | 65% | 5.7% | −2 min | 12.1% | +85 min | PSA Airlines 57%, Republic Airways 21%, Envoy 18%, American Airlines 4% |
Airline = the name on the ticket. Regional flights (e.g. "Delta Connection") count under the ticketing airline, and the operator is listed.
Best time of day to fly
On-time rate by scheduled departure hour (local time at DCA). Delays build through the day as late planes knock on, so early flights usually do best.
By airline and hour
| Departs | Delta Air Lines | American Airlines |
|---|---|---|
| 6 a.m. | 86% | — |
| 7 a.m. | 81% | — |
| 10 a.m. | — | 71% |
| noon | 74% | — |
| 2 p.m. | 86% | — |
| 3 p.m. | 67% | 60% |
| 6 p.m. | 73% | — |
| 7 p.m. | — | 61% |
| 8 p.m. | — | 47% |
Last flight of the day
On DCA → MSP, each airline's last flight of the day was cancelled 5.4% of the time, against 2.3% for its earlier flights (2.4× as often). It arrived 3+ hours late 3.1% of the time (earlier flights: 2.5%). It matters more than the numbers suggest. Miss an earlier flight and there's another one that evening; miss the last one and you're usually waiting until morning.
| Airline | Last departure | Last: cancelled | Last: 3h+ late | Earlier: cancelled | Next morning |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| American Airlines | 8:06 p.m. | 9.2% | 2.9% | 3.5% | first flight 8:49 a.m. |
| Delta Air Lines | 6:59 p.m. | 2.2% | 3.3% | 1.8% | first flight 6:00 a.m. |
Last flight = the airline's last scheduled departure on this route that day, on days it flies the route at least twice; past 12 months. Times are typical scheduled times over the latest three months.
If you need to be in MSP tonight, book an earlier flight so there's a backup if it's cancelled.
By month
Each calendar month pooled over 2023–2026. Best: September (89%). Worst: July (62%).
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Monday | 420 | 76% | 3.8% |
| Tuesday | 413 | 76% | 2.9% |
| Wednesday | 371 | 73% | 0.3% |
| Thursday | 404 | 68% | 3.2% |
| Friday | 408 | 72% | 3.4% |
| Saturday | 312 | 80% | 2.9% |
| Sunday | 325 | 67% | 6.2% |
Why flights were late
Share of delay minutes on flights 15+ minutes late, as reported to BTS by the airlines.
Cancellations: weather 58 · airline 14 · air traffic/airport 13
Month by month
Flight numbers on this route
Regular flights with at least 120 scheduled trips in the past year. Sorted by departure time.
| Flight | Departs | Flights | On time | Cancelled | Typical arrival | Operated by |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DL 1193 | 6:05 a.m. | 365 | 86% | 1.9% | −8 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 1493 | 7:45 a.m. | 279 | 81% | 1.4% | −8 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2958 | 12:00 p.m. | 350 | 75% | 2.3% | −4 min | Delta Air Lines |
| DL 2963 | 6:59 p.m. | 356 | 72% | 2.3% | −6 min | Delta Air Lines |
Worst days in the past year
| Date | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jan 27, 2026 | 8 | 0% | 4 |
| Jan 25, 2026 | 7 | 0% | 7 |
| Mar 15, 2026 | 6 | 0% | 3 |
| Jan 26, 2026 | 8 | 13% | 4 |
| Jun 12, 2026 | 8 | 13% | 4 |
Nearby airport alternatives
Other ways to make the same trip, using airports within 60 miles of Washington or Minneapolis. IAD → MSP has been 11 points more reliable.
| Route | Flights | On time | Cancelled |
|---|---|---|---|
| DCA → MSP (this route) | 2,653 | 73% | 3.2% |
| IAD → MSP Washington Dulles to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 1,301 | 84% | 1.4% |
| BWI → MSP Baltimore/Washington to Minneapolis-St. Paul | 1,423 | 77% | 2.1% |
Questions
How often are flights from DCA to MSP on time?
73% of 2,653 scheduled flights from Washington, DC to Minneapolis, MN arrived within 15 minutes of schedule between September 2025 and August 2026. 3.2% were cancelled.
What is the best time of day to fly DCA to MSP?
Flights scheduled to leave at 6 a.m. were the most reliable (86% on time). The 8 p.m. departures were the least (47%).
Which airline is most on time from DCA to MSP?
Delta Air Lines: 77% of its 1,722 flights on the route arrived on time. American Airlines: 65%.
What month has the most delays from DCA to MSP?
July (62% on time). The best month is September (89%), over 2023–2026.
Is the last flight of the day from DCA to MSP more likely to be cancelled?
Yes. Each airline's last DCA–MSP flight of the day was cancelled 5.4% of the time over the past year, against 2.3% for its earlier flights. If the last flight is cancelled, the next one is usually the following morning.
Related
- MSP → DCA (return)
- Washington Reagan National (DCA) delays by hour
- Flights into Minneapolis-St. Paul (MSP)
- Delta Air Lines on-time record
- American Airlines on-time record
- Connecting off this flight? Check the risk
Domestic flights by the airlines that report to the U.S. DOT, plus their regional partners. "On time" means arriving less than 15 minutes after schedule; cancelled and diverted flights count as not on time. Past performance is a guide, not a forecast. Method.