About 1 in 4 AA 4538 flights from New York arrived 15+ minutes late, diverted or cancelled over the past year (25%); 3.5% were cancelled. The typical flight landed 4 minutes early.
AA 4538: JFK → DCA
Scheduled to leave New York at 6:30 a.m. local time, operated by Republic Airways as YX 4538. Over the past year it arrived on time 75% of the time (284 flights), better than other AA flights on the route at that hour (72%). Last seen in the data Aug 4, 2026.
Month by month
By day of week
| Day | Flights | On time |
|---|---|---|
| Monday | 42 | 88% |
| Tuesday | 41 | 85% |
| Wednesday | 41 | 68% |
| Thursday | 37 | 76% |
| Friday | 41 | 68% |
| Saturday | 41 | 73% |
| Sunday | 41 | 68% |
Why it was late
All flights JFK → DCA · Connecting off AA 4538? Check the risk
Questions
How often is AA 4538 from JFK to DCA late?
American Airlines 4538 from New York, NY to Washington, DC arrived 15 or more minutes late, was diverted or was cancelled on 25% of 284 scheduled flights between September 2025 and August 2026. 3.5% were cancelled.
Flight numbers change. Figures cover flights with this airline, number and route only. "Likely range" is the 95% interval for the true on-time rate given the number of flights. This is history, not live status: check American Airlines for today's flight. Method.